African Outbound Travel to Hit 19.4 Million Trips by 2035: Why Nigeria’s Wallet Outruns Its Headcount

Nigeria sends one-fifth as many travellers abroad as South Africa, yet it outspends South Africa by 41%. That single ratio rewrites how to read African outbound travel. Operators who count heads miss the money, and the money already leaves the continent.

Skift launched Africa in Motion: The Next Great Traveller at World Travel Market London on 4 November 2026, and Millat Group commissioned the research. The study forecasts that outbound trips from Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa will climb from 13.3 million in 2025 to 17.7 million in 2030, then to 19.4 million in 2035.

Spending grows faster than trips. Skift projects that outbound spending from the five markets will rise about 61% to $30.4 billion by 2030. The team built its forecasts on a survey of more than 14,000 travellers across 14 source markets, plus aviation analysis and interviews it ran between December 2025 and July 2026.

Nigeria shows the gap most clearly. It ranks seventh of the eight markets Skift examined for outbound departures, yet it leads on spending at $7.7 billion. Michelle Gounden, Director of Insights at Skift, says that in this corridor “the money follows family, faith and business.” Hamza Farooqui, founder and CEO of Millat Group, says the industry has ranked African travellers last and must now invest in them seriously.

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African Outbound Travel Hits Two Walls: Air Access and Hotel Supply

Start with the sky. An IATA study for the African Union found that only 19% of the 1,431 city pairs among member states had a weekly direct flight, based on 2019 service. Travellers on the rest connect, and many routes go through other hubs. Intra-African travellers still make up about 40% of the continent’s international arrivals, according to Skift.

Then price the ticket. African passengers paid an average of $68 in taxes and charges per international departure in 2024, against $32 in Europe. West Africa averaged $109.50, the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) found, and Nigeria ranked third in Africa for the highest ticket charges.

The carriers that sell those tickets earn almost nothing from them. IATA’s June 2024 outlook projected that African airlines would make $0.90 per passenger in 2024, while Middle Eastern airlines would make $15.20. Margins that thin leave airlines little room to cut fares or open routes.

Hotels mirror the problem. W Hospitality Group counts a record 123,846 rooms across 675 hotels in Africa’s chain pipeline for 2026, and Marriott alone holds 31,782 of them. Yet only 14 of the 168 brands with signed deals operate in the economy or midscale segments, where Skift expects most future demand.

Farooqui wants better links between African cities, cheaper capital and rooms that match how Africans actually travel. Millat Group, a Johannesburg-based private equity firm with property and hospitality investments, commissioned the study, so readers should weigh that interest.

Foreign appetite for Africa also outruns foreign familiarity. Across the 14 source markets, India (32%) and the UAE (29%) showed the strongest forward travel intentions to Africa, against 16% in the United States. Gulf hubs already link the continent to those markets: about 28% of South Africa’s connecting traffic to Europe flows through them.

For tourism strategists, the study moves the target. Price, route and room type decide who wins African travellers; headcounts do not.

For travellers, until direct routes multiply and taxes fall, expect more connections through Gulf and European hubs than the map suggests. For destinations on the sidelines, the opening sits with mid-priced operators: the country that builds the right rooms and routes first captures African spending before foreign rivals do.

RCA POSITION

African Outbound Travel and Nigeria: Spending Patterns, Gaps and Sector Impact

Nigeria’s outbound money follows obligations as much as holidays. Central Bank of Nigeria balance-of-payments data show Nigerians spent $2.85 billion on travel-related services abroad in the first half of 2026, and education took 50.5% of it. Health-related outflows added $341.28 million. Nigeria ranked third in Africa for air ticket charges in AFRAA’s 2024 study, and it offers direct flights to 21 African countries, against Ethiopia’s 38, according to AFRAA’s third-quarter 2024 data.

Hotel supply trails the intent. Nigeria holds the continent’s third-largest chain pipeline, with 8,480 rooms across 57 hotels, but only 39.2% of those rooms are under construction, against 79.9% in Ethiopia and 79.5% in Kenya, W Hospitality Group reports. Lagos alone carries 4,250 planned rooms across nine deals.

For Africa, outbound demand adds a second growth engine to an already moving sector. Tourism counted 81 million international arrivals in Africa in 2025, up 8% and the fastest growth of any world region. Capture the regional traveller too, and the continent keeps spending that now flows to foreign airlines, hubs and hotels.

For Nigeria, the lesson is blunt: the country exports demand. High fares, heavy taxes and thin regional routes push Nigerian travellers to buy abroad what Lagos and other cities could sell at home. Lower charges, more direct African routes and midscale rooms would convert part of that outflow into domestic and regional tourism revenue.

Risk remains. Nigeria’s total travel outflows fell 3.47% year on year in the first half of 2026, which shows that currency and cost pressure can shrink even resilient demand. The 2035 forecast also depends on airlines, regulators and developers acting on the findings, and W Hospitality Group warns that hotel delivery may fall short of projections.

We argue that African tourism has misread its own travellers. Because airlines, hotel groups and governments plan around arrival counts, they under-build the routes and mid-priced rooms that African travellers already buy abroad.

Air Access is the other half of this story. See how missing routes and high fares drain African tourism revenue in RCA’s analysis of intra-African air connectivity, then keep going. RCA tracks the routes, hotels, and policies that decide where Africa’s travellers go next. Follow every story.

FAQs

How many outbound trips will African travellers take by 2035?

Skift forecasts that Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa will generate 19.4 million outbound trips in 2035, up from 13.3 million in 2025 and 17.7 million in 2030. Outbound spending from the same markets should reach $30.4 billion by 2030.

Why does Nigeria outspend South Africa on outbound travel?

Nigeria spends $7.7 billion, about 41% more than South Africa, on roughly one-fifth as many trips. Skift’s Michelle Gounden says the money follows family, faith and business. Central Bank of Nigeria data also show education drives more than half of Nigeria’s travel-related foreign exchange outflows.

What holds back African outbound travel?

Four things stand out: only 19% of African Union city pairs had a weekly direct flight in 2019; passengers paid $68 on average in taxes and charges per international departure in 2024; African airlines earn thin margins; and few economy or midscale hotel brands have signed deals.

Which countries show the strongest interest in visiting Africa?

Across 14 source markets, India (32%) and the UAE (29%) showed the highest forward travel intentions to Africa, against 16% in the United States. Gulf hubs also carry about 28% of South Africa’s connecting traffic to Europe.

What should travel agencies and tourism boards do now?

Plan around spending power instead of headcounts. Build products for African travellers, press for lower aviation charges and more direct routes, and track Skift’s forthcoming country-level data to refine pricing, packages and client advice.